Analisis Permintaan Impor Kedelai Indonesia

Abstract

ABSTRACT

The purpose of this research is to analyze determinants of Indonesia soybean import demand, analyze the most dominant factor affecting Indonesia soybean import, and project Indonesia soybean import in the next few years. Analysis tool used is multiple linear regression, elasticity analysis, and trend analysis.Research result showed that simultaniously soybean harvest area, soybean productivity, domestic soybean price, domestik maize price, domestic chicken meat price, domestic chicken egg price, population, previous year total reserves, exchange rate, and GDP per capita variables have significant effect to Indonesia soybean import. Partially, domestic soybean price and exchange rate have negative significant effect to Indonesia soybean import, domestic maize price and domestic chicken meat price have positive significant effect to Indonesia soybean import whereas harvest area, soybean productivity, domestic chicken egg price, population, previous year total reserves, and GDP per capita don’t have significant effect to Indonesia soybean import. From elasticity analysis, the most dominant factor affecting Indonesia soybean import is population. Trend analysis forcasted that Indonesia soybean import will increase 6,81 percent per year until 2023. Implication of this research is the goverment needs to run Program Stabilitasi Harga Kedelai (Program SHK) and food commodity distribution in order to mantain the soybean price, maize price, and chicken meat price. Program Keluarga Berencana should be conducted to reduce the population growth, and the need of various goverments efforts to reduce the import soybean dependency.

Keywords: Soybean, Maize, Population, Total Reserves, Exchange Rate