Analysis Of The Influence Of Macroeconomic Factors On The Value Of Non-Oil And Gas Exports

Lusmino Basia, Suharno Suharno, Arintoko Arintoko

Abstract


Exports have a significant position as the pioneer of the economy, as a result the direction of policy in the export trade zone is to increase exports mainly to the non-oil zone, non-oil zone exports affect the depreciation of oil prices in the earth market as a result can have an impact on the depreciation of oil and gas revenues. This research intends to analyze the long time and short time effects of major economic aspects are elastic interest, inflation, indicator of wholesale prices( IHPB), and exchange rates on non-oil exports. The information used is time series information, and the information used is obtained from 2009 to 2019 from the legitimate websites of the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) and Bank Indonesia (BI). The information has been analyzed using Eviews analysis equipment, and the procedure used is the Vector Error Correction Form( VECM) procedure. The research results prove that an interest rate escalation of 1% will lead to a non-oil export escalation of 11%. And if the inflation escalation by 1% will cause the non-oil export escalation by 6%, if the exchange rate escalation by 1% will cause the non-oil export escalation by 76%. In the long run, all the elastics are interest rate, inflation, IHPB, and exchange rate have a positive and important effect on non-oil exports because they have a number t of t chart. If each elastic faces an escalation, it will affect non-oil exports.

Keywords: non-oil exports, interest rates, inflation, index of wholesale prices (IHPB), exchange rates, VECM


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