The Impact Of Monetary Policy And Economic Stability On The Residential Property Price Index In Indonesia
Abstract
Society has primary needs that must be met to survive. Primary conditions involve several essential aspects that ensure the survival and well-being of living things. The growth of the property market can be seen from the consistent increase in residential property prices. In this study, the variables used are the Residential Property Price Index, Wholesale Price Index (IHPB Construction), Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Demand for Mortgage Consumption Credit, Central Bank Interest Rates (SBBI), and Exchange Rates in Indonesia for the 1st quarter of 2009, until the 4th quarter of 2022. The method used is Vector Auto Regression (VAR). The VAR model is a system of equations that shows each variable as a linear function of the constants, the lag values (past) of the variables themselves, and the lag values of other variables in the system of equations. The advantage of the VAR model is to develop the model simultaneously in a complex (multivariate) system. Judging from the AR polynomial table, by looking at the value of all the roots, the modulus value is less than one, all are located in the unit circle, and the maximum lag value is 7. This explains that the response time required by the IHPR variable to changes/shocks is the determinant variable. Took place in 7 study periods (seven quarters) after the change. For the causality test, what happens is that the IHPR affects SBBI, and the IHPB affects mortgages, and the exchange rate affects GDP and mortgages.
Keywords: Price; Property; Monetary Policy; Economic Stability.
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