Analysis Of Factors Affecting Cocoa Bean Exports In Indonesia

Farhan Latansha, Barokatuminalloh Barokatuminalloh, Lilis Siti Badriah, Suparjito Suparjito

Abstract


This study aims to analyze the factors affecting cocoa bean exports in Indonesia and examine the market conditions for cocoa bean exports. The dependent variable in this study is the value of cocoa bean exports in Indonesia (Y), while the independent variables include the area of cocoa plantations in Indonesia (X1), global cocoa bean demand (X2), domestic cocoa bean price in Indonesia (X3), international cocoa bean price (X4), and the exchange rate of Indonesian Rupiah to the US Dollar (X5). The scope of this research focuses on cocoa bean exports in Indonesia using time series data. The data used in this study consists of primary and secondary data from the years 2001 to 2021. Data sources were obtained from UN Comtrade, World Bank, Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS), Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry of Trade, Directorate of Plantation, The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO), relevant websites, and several previous studies from 2016 to 2021.

The analysis method used in this study is the Error Correction Model (ECM) processed using the statistical analysis software Eviews. This research will analyze the partial effects of the independent variables on the value of cocoa bean exports in Indonesia in the short and long term.

The results of this study are expected to provide a better understanding of the factors affecting cocoa bean exports in Indonesia and the market conditions for cocoa bean exports. These findings can serve as an important basis for the government, industry players, and other stakeholders in developing policies that support the growth and increase of cocoa bean exports in Indonesia.

Based on the conducted stationarity tests, all independent variables are stationary, validating the relationships in the equation model. The stationarity test results show a Probability Value of 0.0183 with a significance level of .000, which is less than 0.05. The Engle-Granger Cointegration test indicates that the International Price (X4) variable has a significant long-term effect with a coefficient value of 289575.9 and a significance level of 0.0490. The Exchange Rate (X5) variable has a positive effect with a coefficient value of -71814.49 and a significance level of 0.0282. Furthermore, the Error Correction Model (ECM) test reveals that the International Price (X4) variable has a significant short-term effect with a coefficient value of 393942.2 and a significance level of 0.0221.

 

Keywords: Cocoa Bean, Export, Indonesia


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