THE PREDICTION OF BANKING STOCKS BOOK VALUE IN 2012 USING PRICING MULTIPLE MODELS AN EMPIRICAL STUDY ON BANKING STOCKS IN INDONESIA STOCK EXCHANGE

Abstract

The aims of this research are to estimate or predict the book value of banking stock; evaluate banking performance and their equity growth. Price multiple models and an analysis of book value to – book multiple are used in order to predict the book value per share. The condition of macro economy, SBI rate, coupon rate of government bond are used toforecast the financial reports 2012- 2016 periods. The prediction of book value per share then compare to the market price on daily basis. The Tobin – q model is used to evaluate the banking performances. The data used in this research are the published financial reports 2007 – 2011 periods. We find that: the average growth rate of equity book value is more than 20% per year; positive abnormal return, and the banking industry has a good performance.