Indonesia's Economic Growth: Determinants and Prospects

Lusmino Basia, Bambang Agus Pramuka, Diah Setyorini Gunawan

Abstract


The benchmark of success in measuring a country's economic development is economic growth in the country. As for what can be used as a benchmark for measuring economic growth, among them are natural resources, human resources, and government finances. In this study, researchers aim to determine the effect of inflation, government spending, stock prices, and labor on economic growth. using secondary data and using research methods with a quantitative approach. The type of data used is secondary data from 2017–2021 (quarter data), using multiple linear regression analysis methods using the E-Views 9.0 analysis tool. The results of this study indicate that the inflation variable and stock prices partially have a significant positive effect on economic growth, while the government expenditure and labor variables are proven to partially have a negative and insignificant effect on economic growth. The R-squared value is 0.757149, meaning that the inflation, government spending, stock prices, and labor variables are able to explain and influence the government spending variable by 75.7149%, and the remaining 24.2851% is influenced by variables outside this research model.

Keywords: inflation, government expenditure, stock price, and labor

Full Text:

PDF

References


A Book

Todaro, Michael P. and Smith, Stephen C. (2003). Economic Development. UK: Pearson Education Limited.

Mustanir, A., & Jabbar, A. (2019).ray, C., & Bilsborrow, R. (2013). Environmental Influences on Human Migration in

Robert S. Pindyck dan Daniel L. Rubinfeld. 2008. Ekonomi Makro Edisi Keenam Jilid 1. Penerbit Indeks. Jakarta.

Ali Ibrahim Hasyim, Ekonomi Makro, (Jakarta: Kencana. 2016), hlm. 231

Rahardjo Adisasmita, Teori-Teori Pembangunan Ekonomi, Pertumbuhan Ekonomi dan Pertumbuhan wilayah, cetakan pertama, Graha Ilmu, Yogyakarta,2013, hlm. 4.

Michael Todaro, Pembangunan Ekonomi Di dunia Ketiga, Erlangga, Jakarta, 2000, hlm 44

Rahardjo Adisasmita, Pertumbuhan Wilayah dan Wilayah Pertumbuhan, Graha Ilmu, Yogyakarta, 2014, hlm. 91.

Syamsudin, L. (2007). Manajemen keuangan perusahaan. Jakarta: Raja Grafindo Persada.

Tjiptono, F. (2006).Manajemen Jasa Edisi Pertama. Yogyakarta: Andi.

Barro R.J.: Determinants of Economic Growth, MIT Press, London, 1999, 117-118 Demekas D.G.,

Kirchner S.: Reforming Central Banking, The Center for Independent Studies Limited, 1997

Nurul Huda, dkk, Ekonomi Pembangunan Islam(Jakarta : Kencana , (2015), h. 90 Sadono Sukirno, Op. Cit., h.456

S. Mulyadi. (2014).Ekonomi Sumber Daya Manusia Dalam Perspektif Pembangunan.Jakarta : PT. Raja Grafindo Persada.

Journal article

Kotarba B and Kolomvcew A, 2014, Financial Independence of Local Government Units in Poland, Journal of Universal Excellence, vol 3(4), p. 101-104

Lu, Y. (2010). Rural-urban migration and health: Evidence from longitudinal data in Indonesia.Social Science & Medicine, 70(3), 412-419.DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socscimed.2009.10.028

Gherghina, R, 2013, The Contribution of Education to The Economics Development Process of State, Journal of Knowledge Management Studies and Information Technology, 3(1), 211-223

Epaphra, M. (2018.). An Econometric Analysis of The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Africa, International Journal of Development Economics

Rural Ecuador. Demography, 50(4), 1217-1241. DOI: 10.1007/s13524-012-0192-y

Hanley, J., Ives, N., Lenet, J., Hordyk, S.-R., Walsh, C., Soltane, S. B., & Este, D. 2 9 .

Migrant women’s health and housing insecurity: an intersectional analysis. International Journal of Migration, Health and Social Care, 15(1), 90-106. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/IJMHSC-05-2018-0027

Hollis, J. (2019). The psychosocial experience of UK immigration detention. International Journal of Migration, Health and Social Care, 15(1), 76-89. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/IJMHSC-04-2018-0024

Tombe, T., & Zhu, X. (2019). Trade, migration, and productivity: A quantitative analysis of china. American Economic Review, 109(5), 1843-1872. DOI: 10.1257/aer.20150811

Naik, P., K., & Puja, P. (2015). On the linkage between stock market development and economic growth in emerging market economies: Dynamic panel evidence. Review of Accounting and Finance. Vol. 14, Issue: 4, pp. 363-381.

Srinivasan, P. (2013). Causality between public expenditure aand economic growth: The Indian case. International Journal of Economics and Management, 7(2), 335-347.

Sukartini, N. M. & Saleh, S. (2012). Pengujian Hukum Wagner dalam perekonomian Indonesia: Kajian pengeluaran pemerintah pusat dan pemerintah provinsi. Jurnal Bisnis dan Ekonomi (JBE), 19(1), 1-24.

Thabane, K. & Lebina, S. (2016). Economic growth and government spending nexus: Empirical evidence from Lesotho. African Journal of Economic Review, 4(1), 86- 100.

UN (United Nations). (2018). World Economic Situation and Prospects 2018. New York: United Nations.

Wolde-Rufael, Y. (2008). The revenue-expenditure nexus: The experience of 13 African countries. African Development Review, 20(2), 273-283.

Xia, J. (2015). Predatory journals and their article publishing charges. Learned Publishing, 28(1), 69-74.

Amirullah, Said Yunus. 2019. Pengaruh Belanja modal terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi (studi kasus kabupaten-kabupaten Di provinsi Aceh).

A Paper

Koichiro Kamada, Jouchi Nakajima, 2013, On The Reliability of Japanese Inflation Expectation Using Purchasing Power Parity, Bank of Japan Working Papers Series, Tokyo,

Hossain, M. Z. (2001). Rural-urban migration in Bangladesh: a micro-level study. Paper presented at the Brazil IUSSP conference. August.

Hossain, M. Z. (2001). Rural-urban migration in Bangladesh: a micro-level study. Paper presented at the Brazil IUSSP conference. August.

Kei Imakubo, Jouchi Nakajima, 2015, Estimating Inflation Risk Premia from Nominal and Real Yield Curves using a Shadow Rate Mode, Bank of Japan Working Papers Series, Tokyo,

Kerr, S. P., & Kerr, W. R. (2011). Economic impacts of immigration: A survey. Finnish Economic Paper, 24(1), 1-32.

Koichiro Kamada, Jouchi Nakajima, 2013, On The Reliability of Japanese Inflation Expectation Using Purchasing Power Parity, Bank of Japan Working Papers Series, Tokyo,

Khan M.S.: The Romanian Economic Reform Program, IMF Occasional Paper, no 89,1991

Fisher St.: Modern Aproaches to Central Banking, Working Paper No.5064, Cambridge, p.15

Scholar.Google

Badan Pusat Statistik. Pengeluaran Pemerintah Indonesia. Constantinos Alexiou (2009) . Government Spending and Economic Growth: Econometric Evidence from the South Eastern Eorupe.

Hector Sala dan José I. Silva (2011) . Labor Productivity and Vocational Training: Evidence from Europe.

(Https://Scholar.Google.Co.Id.) Di Akses Tanggal 27 Agustus 2021.

Andi, Wijaya Ferdian. 2019. Analisis Dampak Pengeluaran Pemerintah Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekkonomi (Studi Kabupaten/Kota Di Jawa Timur).

(Https://Scholar.Google.Co.Id.) Di Akses Tanggal 10 Februari 2021.

Cindy, Pangestu Eka. 2018. Pengaruh Belanja Barang Dan Jasa, Belanja Pegawai Dan Investasi Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Di Provinsi Kalimantan Selatan. Volume 1 no.1, (Https://Scholar.Google.Co.Id.) Di Akses tanggal 8 Februari 2021.

Fitriani, Nurul. 2017. Pengaruh Tenaga Kerja Dan Pengeluaran Pemerintah Terhadap

Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Di Provinsi Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta Tahun 2007- 2015. (Https://Scholar.Google.Co.Id.) Di Akses Tanggal 12 Februari 2021.


Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.