Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Permintaan dan Penawaran Kedelai di Indonesia Periode 1994 – 2013

Abstract

The purpose of this research are to analyze the factors affecting Soybean Demand in Indonesia, to analyze the factors affecting Soybean Supply in Indonesia, and to know what are the most affecting factors on the supply and demand of soybean in Indonesia. The data are used from 1994-2003 years period, and used simultaneous equations analytical methods. The variables are used in this research have over identified conditions, so the analysis are used Two Stage Least Squares Approach. The results of this research showed that : (1) the variables that affecting to soybean demand in Indonesia are population income, total population and chicken meat price. While the variables that no affecting to soybean demand in Indonesia are soybean price and last year soybean prices. (2) the variables that affecting to soybean supply in Indonesia are soybean prices and crop area. While, the variables that no affecting to soybean supply in Indonesia are Last year soybean demand. (3) The most affecting factor to soybean demand is total population, while the most affecting factor to soybean supply is crop area. The implications of this research are: (1) there needs to be a equilibrium between soybean demand and soybean supply, there needs to be innovation for diversification foods of soybean and notice the substitution goods price of soybean. (2) there needs to be an intensification of farming, so the supply of local soybean can be improved, both of quality and quantity. (3) Total population are the most affecting factor to soybean demand, so the rate of population growth must be suppressed with improving the implementation of Keluarga Berencana (KB) program. Then, domestic soybean production should be improved in order to satisfy the soybean demand in domestic.

keywords: soybean price, chicken meet price, last year soybean demand, crop area